Latest flood outlook

Mar 22, 06:31 PM

As of Sunday night, March 22nd, area rivers and streams have returned to their banks after significant floods the first portion of the month. Based on conditions determined on March 18th, the National Weather Service has produced its second major flood outlook of the season. While it shows just a slightly elevated risk, it is subject to change should heavy rainfall return to area river basins. This week may be one of those periods where the outlook could swing towards a higher risk as rains of 1 to 5” are possible in many portions of the mid and upper Mississippi River Valley. It will be interesting to see where we stand next week at this time.

Outlook Summary…

The risk of spring flooding has increased slightly across portions of the Quad Cities Hydrologic Service Area since the previous spring outlook from February. The slightly increased risk is in response to widespread moderate to heavy rainfall earlier in March, combined with soil moisture remaining well above normal. There is a near normal risk to slightly greater than normal risk of flooding across much of eastern Iowa. An increased risk of flooding exists across northwestern Illinois, especially for the Rock River basin. There is a near normal to slightly below normal flood risk for the mainstem Mississippi River, with the lesser risk generally north of New Boston.

Significant snowmelt that occurred in February has resulted in little to no snow cover remaining across eastern Iowa or northern Illinois. Rainfall over the past month has been above normal, and caused river levels to remain above normal throughout. Excessive runoff resulted from recent widespread moderate to heavy rainfall in early March, with the rain falling on already saturated or still frozen ground. Area rivers have responded from this runoff and remain in the much above normal to high categories. A relatively dry weather period is anticipated through mid March, and should allow area rivers to recede for a time.

Below is the National Weather Service outlook for flooding around much of the central and eastern U.S. Again, this was based on projections made March 18th.

NATIONAL FLOOD OUTLOOK

HERE IS A LOOK AT THE 90-DAY PRECIP. OUTLOOK

One part of the nation that is expecting serious flooding is the Red River Valley area of North Dakota and Minnesota. As you can see on the map below a high risk of flooding is posted there. At this moment, the flooding in this region may rival that of 1997 when most of Grand Forks flooded and a major part of the downtown area then burned to the ground.

As always, when it comes to flooding things can change quickly. Keep in mind that these projections are just educated guesses based on the best information available at that time. If things change for the worse, you can get I’ll be all over it. Here’s hoping for the best.
Ride the wind,
T. Swails

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